Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 81.3%
Previsores
26
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado13/01/26, 13:35 UTC1/01/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a civil war occurs in Iran by December 31, 2026.
- Civil war is defined as sustained armed conflict between the Iranian government and organized opposition forces, or between competing factions for control of the state, resulting in significant casualties and territorial control disputes.
- The conflict must involve organized military or paramilitary units engaging in coordinated combat operations across multiple regions of Iran.
- Resolution will be determined by reports from major international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) and human rights monitoring organizations (Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International).
- A single incident or localized uprising does not constitute civil war; the conflict must demonstrate characteristics of prolonged, multi-front warfare.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Civil War in Iran in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 81% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Civil War in Iran in 2026? é resolvido?
- Civil War in Iran in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Civil War in Iran in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria