Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 91.3%
Previsores
58
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado21/10/24, 21:08 UTC2/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
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For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following:
- Sustained armed conflict: There must be sustained combat or warfare involving at least 500 casualties (fatalities and injuries combined) among U.S. citizens or residents.
- The conflict must take place on U.S. soil.
- Organized factions: The armed conflict must involve at least two organized groups or militias, with at least one faction declaring opposition to the current U.S. federal government, or opposing the recognized governance of at least three states.
- Declared intent to overthrow or disrupt: At least one faction must publicly declare its intent to overthrow or replace the U.S. federal government, or force the secession of multiple states (minimum of three), or otherwise disrupt the national governance structure (e.g., through regional independence).
- Geographical scope: The conflict must involve violent clashes in at least three states or territories within the U.S. (including federal districts).
Mercados abertos
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
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- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 91% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027? é resolvido?
- Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following: