Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 94.1%
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192
Tipo de pergunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado26/08/22, 03:21 UTC1/01/30, 08:00 UTC
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Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?
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KalshiRegras
"Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against come other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
- Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country.
- It must be an attempt to conquer territory or people, not just riots.
- It's an "I know it when I see it" kind of thing.
- I won't bet.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 94% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030? é resolvido?
- Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: "Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against come other part of the country.