Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
>2028 87%Líder entre 23 opções
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado21/11/24, 15:59 UTC31/12/28, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
0.5%
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0.3%
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KalshiRegras
This market predicts when a nuclear weapon will be used aggressively.
- Resolution criteria:
- Qualifies as aggressive use:
- Use of any nuclear weapon (including tactical) against another nation
- Nuclear detonations caused by non-state actors or unknown perpetrators
- Accidental nuke uses that impact outside the initiating nation's borders
Mercados abertos
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- Volume total
- € 22,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 581,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
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POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
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POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
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POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 55,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 96,8 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place??
- A Manifold Markets cota >2028 em 87% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place? é resolvido?
- When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market predicts when a nuclear weapon will be used aggressively.