Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 76.2%
Previsores
21
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado18/06/25, 21:25 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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This market evaluates the likelihood of a nuclear weapon (dirty bomb, tactical nuke, war-heard, etc.) being used in any conflict worldwide before January 1 2029.
- With rising global tensions and the modernization of nuclear arsenals by several countries, the risk of nuclear weapon use is a pressing concern.
- Resolution will be based on reports from international news agencies and official government statements.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
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POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 35,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 100,1 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
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POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 76% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029 é resolvido?
- A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029 deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market evaluates the likelihood of a nuclear weapon (dirty bomb, tactical nuke, war-heard, etc.) being used in any conflict worldwide before January 1 2029.