Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 97.7%
Previsores
56
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado10/03/26, 00:23 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Nuclear weapon used offensively before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuke be used offensively before the end of the year ?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively against a target during 2026. "Offensive use" means deliberate detonation by a state or non-state actor as a weapon in an armed conflict or attack, excluding accidental detonation, testing, or defensive/retaliatory use in response to a prior nuclear attack.
- Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) confirming a nuclear detonation with offensive intent.
- The market creator will resolve based on available evidence at year-end.
- Military operations in 2025 occurred in three theaters under the shadow of nuclear weapons, with the Russia-Ukraine war featuring innovative military tactics and Russian nuclear threats.
- Russia revised its nuclear doctrine to signal a lower threshold for nuclear weapons use.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 35,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 100,1 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 98% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026 é resolvido?
- Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026 deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria