Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 96.9%
Previsores
58
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 minutos
10/03/26, 00:23 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a nuke be used offensively before the end of the year ?
Manifold MarketsNuclear weapon used offensively before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively against a target during 2026. "Offensive use" means deliberate detonation by a state or non-state actor as a weapon in an armed conflict or attack, excluding accidental detonation, testing, or defensive/retaliatory use in response to a prior nuclear attack.
- Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) confirming a nuclear detonation with offensive intent.
- The market creator will resolve based on available evidence at year-end.
- Military operations in 2025 occurred in three theaters under the shadow of nuclear weapons, with the Russia-Ukraine war featuring innovative military tactics and Russian nuclear threats.
- Russia revised its nuclear doctrine to signal a lower threshold for nuclear weapons use.