Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 93%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado2/10/25, 10:28 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, on or before 23:59:59 on December 31, 2027 (Paris time), any of the following occurs for the sovereign “French Republic”:
- The ISDA Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee publicly rules a sovereign Credit Event (Failure to Pay, Repudiation/Moratorium, or Restructuring).
- Source: ISDA DC portal and ISDA sovereign credit‑event definitions. [cdsdeterminationscommittees.org], [isda.org] (isda.org)
- S&P Global Ratings assigns France an issuer credit rating of SD (Selective Default) or D. Definitions: S&P/Taiwan Ratings. [taiwanratings.com] (taiwanratings.com)
- Fitch Ratings assigns France an Issuer Default Rating of RD (Restricted Default) or D. Definitions: Fitch Ratings. [your.fitchratings.com] (your.fitchratings.com)
Mercados abertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 89,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 541,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 30,7 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 334,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 12,8 mil
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 10,7 mil
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- € 612,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 6,9 mil
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- € 2,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,3 mil
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de France defaults on debt by 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 93% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando France defaults on debt by 2027? é resolvido?
- France defaults on debt by 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como France defaults on debt by 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria