KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 97%
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
1 mil €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
1.1% / 3.0%
Spread
1.9 pt
Spread apertadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 minutos
12/03/26, 14:00 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
US defaults before 2030?
KalshiUS defaults before 2029?
KalshiUS defaults before 2028?
KalshiUS defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAir Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegras
If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
Comparação de fontes de previsão
Mercados abertos
Bonds & Treasuries
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.9%-0.7pt9%
- 3.8%+3.0pt8%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 211,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 7,3 mil
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-27.0pt50%
- 4.85%-25.5pt41%
- 4.94%-10.0pt30%
+6 mais resultados
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.4%-1.5pt100%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%+5.5pt79%
- Below 4.73%+15.5pt76%
- Below 4.70%+9.0pt59%
+6 mais resultados
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.7% or above99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 2,1 mil
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.17% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 2 mil
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will NU sell $250M in bonds for the Big Red Rebuild?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- US defaults on debt by 2027?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US defaults before 2027??
- A Kalshi cota No em 97% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando US defaults before 2027? é resolvido?
- US defaults before 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como US defaults before 2027? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Onde mais US defaults before 2027? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em Polymarket.