US defaults on debt by 2027?
1.6 pts (24h)One-OffBonds & TreasuriesMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsEconomia3m
PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 97%-1.6pt
Qualidade do mercado
67 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
812 €
Liquidez
2,1 mil €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
2.7% / 3.8%
Spread
1.1 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
0
Variação 7d
+1.9 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
5/11/25, 19:50 UTC31/12/26, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
- The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
Mercados abertos
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.9%-0.7pt9%
- 3.8%+3.0pt8%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 211,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 7,3 mil
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-27.0pt50%
- 4.85%-25.5pt41%
- 4.94%-10.0pt30%
+6 mais resultados
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.4%-1.5pt100%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%+5.5pt79%
- Below 4.73%+15.5pt76%
- Below 4.70%+9.0pt59%
+6 mais resultados
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.7% or above99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 2,1 mil
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.17% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 2 mil
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will NU sell $250M in bonds for the Big Red Rebuild?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US defaults on debt by 2027??
- A Polymarket cota No em 97% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando US defaults on debt by 2027? é resolvido?
- US defaults on debt by 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como US defaults on debt by 2027? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Onde mais US defaults on debt by 2027? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em Kalshi.