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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Bonds & Treasuries
  3. US defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

0.1% (24h)One-OffBonds & TreasuriesMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsEconomia
PolymarketPolymarketFechadoVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa

Este mercado está fechado e aguardando uma resolução confirmada.

Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 3%
Qualidade do mercado

44 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

4,5 €

Liquidez

4,4 mil €

Liquidez média
Compra / Venda

1.6% / 5.3%

Spread

231.3%

Spread amplo
Variação 7d

-1.9%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado ontem

Desatualizado
5/11/25, 19:5031/12/26, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade
Sim
Sim
3%
Não
Não
97%

Este mercado fechou. O trading simulado só está disponível em mercados abertos.

KalshiTambém disponível em Kalshi

US defaults before 2027?

US defaults before 2027?

6m
Sim
Sim
5%
Não
Não
95%
24 • Baixa qualidadeSpread amploBaixa liquidezMercado raso
Volume total9 €
Volume 24h0 €
KalshiKALSHI

Regras

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
  • The resolution source will be official information from the U.S.
  • Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.

Mercados Relacionados

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

0 €
Sim: 13%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

0 €
Sim: 30%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will South Korea issue at least ₩15T in KTBs in July 2026?

Will South Korea issue at least ₩15T in KTBs in July 2026?

0 €
Sim: 54.3%LimitlessLIMITLESS
Manifold Markets

Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?

19,3 €
Sim: 28.7%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

94,5 €
Sim: 2.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

1,1 €
Sim: 22%KalshiKALSHI

Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$62,647.69-2.89%EthereumETH$1,696.40-2.92%SolanaSOL$68.43-4.71%DogecoinDOGE$0.0824-3.05%XRPXRP$1.13-4.35%BNBBNB$573.69-2.89%

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Regras

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
  • The resolution source will be official information from the U.S.
  • Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.