Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 91.9%
Previsores
33
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado11/03/26, 00:36 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China directly engages in military conflict before December 31, 2026. "Direct engagement" means Chinese military forces (PLA, PLAN, PLAAF, or affiliated paramilitary forces) initiate or participate in armed combat operations resulting in exchange of fire or kinetic action against another nation's military or civilian targets.
- Coercive military activities that do not involve direct combat—such as blockades, military exercises, incursions into airspace or territorial waters, or coast guard operations—do not qualify.
- The conflict must involve actual combat operations.
- Resolution sources: Official statements from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, US Department of Defense, Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, and major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera).
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 92% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026 é resolvido?
- China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026 deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria