Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 74.4%
Previsores
34
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 minutos
9/01/26, 15:05 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- YES resolves if between now and Dec 31, 2028, any of the following occur and are confirmed by credible reporting (e.g., major news outlets, DoD, Cuban Gov):
- 1. ≥10 combined fatalities resulting from intentional military action by either state.
- Fatalities must result from military forces (US Navy, US Air Force, US Marines, US Army, Cuban FAR, Cuban Navy, Cuban Air Force).
- Fatalities may occur to either side (US or Cuban) or third parties as long as they’re caused by a direct military action between the US and Cuban forces.
- A confirmed US or Cuban airstrike, missile strike, or naval strike on the other’s territory, installations, ships, or aircraft.