Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 55%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo27 ott 24, 07:16 UTC31 dic 00, 16:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
KalshiWhen will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
KalshiWill P vs NP be resolved by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWhen will P vs NP be resolved?
KalshiRegole
If this question is resolve as “No” but you vote “No” what would the answer then?
- But if this question resolve as “Yes” but then it will be “No”?
- Is this a paradox?
- I don’t know, which is why I’m making a manifold question to see how the internet collectively solve this paradox, feel free to suggest the answer, but I already have one in my mind…
Mercati aperti
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 59,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 176,8K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-1.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 29,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 271K €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 24,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 3,9K €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.6pt73%
- No27%
- Volume totale
- 302,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 2,8K €
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will this question be resolved as “No”??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 55% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will this question be resolved as “No”??
- Will this question be resolved as “No”? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 3000.
- Come viene liquidato Will this question be resolved as “No”??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: If this question is resolve as “No” but you vote “No” what would the answer then?