KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Hodge Conjecture 73.6%+45.0ptIn testa tra 5 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
24 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
344,6 €
Liquidità
1K €
Bassa liquiditàDati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
12 set 26, 22:00 UTC1 gen 45, 04:59 UTC
Trend
0%
0%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWill some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Manifold MarketsWill some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketWhen will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiRegole
If the named outcome is the first Millennium Prize Problem solved after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:The GuardianNational Academy of Sciences of the United StatesFinancial TimesAssociated Pressthe Clay Mathematics InstituteNaturearXiv preprint repository operated by Cornell UniversityRoyal Societythe American Mathematical Societythe International Mathematical UnionThe Washington Postthe New York TimesMax Planck SocietyAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceBritish Broadcasting CorporationQuanta MagazineThe Wall Street JournalFrench Academy of SciencesBloomberg NewsReutersProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesThe Economist
- A Millennium Prize Problem is considered Solved at the earliest time that any of the following occurs:
- A complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as officially formulated is published in a peer-reviewed journal.
- The Clay Mathematics Institute or another recognized authoritative academic body officially recognizes in writing that the problem has been resolved by reference to a specific written work.
- At least two Source Agencies report that the problem has been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work.
- If multiple problems have the same Solution Time, each is treated as the next problem Solved and the market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied problems.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Manifold Markets — Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? · Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness 98%
Mercati aperti
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 59,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 176,8K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-1.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 29,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 271K €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 24,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 3,9K €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.6pt73%
- No27%
- Volume totale
- 302,9K €
- Volume 24h
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
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- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next??
- Kalshi quota Hodge Conjecture al 74% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next??
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2045.
- Come viene liquidato Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the named outcome is the first Millennium Prize Problem solved after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Dove altro è quotato Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Manifold Markets.