Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 98.6%
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto10 ago 25, 09:10 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
KalshiWhen will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
KalshiWhen will P vs NP be resolved?
KalshiWill formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill "Lies, Damned Lies, and Proofs: Formal Methods..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved by 2043?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Market will be resolved to Yes if at least one of the open problems from DeepMind's formal-conjectures gets decided before 2027.
- Only problems which is added to the main branch of the repository before the creation of this market will be considered.
- The problem should have 'open' tag and should be completely proven via Lean
Mercati aperti
AI
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba+2.0pt69%
- Moonshot-9.5pt14%
- Z.ai-2.3pt6%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 75,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 61,5K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.3pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt15.5%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,8 Mln €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+2.5pt85.4%
- Moonshot-0.3pt9.7%
- Z.ai-3.4pt1.9%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%98%
- Above 2.55%+18.0pt94%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 61,1K €
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 altri esiti
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 99% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027??
- Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Market will be resolved to Yes if at least one of the open problems from DeepMind's formal-conjectures gets decided before 2027.