Will "Lies, Damned Lies, and Proofs: Formal Methods..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffScienzaTecnologia1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86.3%
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Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto22 gen 26, 11:50 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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KalshiRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Lies, Damned Lies, and Proofs: Formal Methods are not Slopless is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
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- Before Jan 20, 202921%
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- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
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- 271K €
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- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
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- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
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- Yes-1.6pt73%
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- Volume 24h
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will "Lies, Damned Lies, and Proofs: Formal Methods..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 86% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will "Lies, Damned Lies, and Proofs: Formal Methods..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Will "Lies, Damned Lies, and Proofs: Formal Methods..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will "Lies, Damned Lies, and Proofs: Formal Methods..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.