Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 61.8%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo16 lug 24, 19:45 UTC31 dic 26, 18:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PolymarketVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketMajor volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsMount Spurr significant eruption by date?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves according to Wikipedia article.
- Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that:
- A mention of the eruption in the volcano's own Wikipedia article is sufficient.
- The Wikipedia page "List of volcanic eruptions in the 21st century" is also a key source, as such eruptions are typically listed there.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 230,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 77,1K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 109,5K €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9K €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 62% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026??
- Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves according to Wikipedia article.