Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 81.6%
Previsori
30
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto16 gen 24, 21:05 UTC17 dic 00, 21:40 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
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Manifold MarketsWill the Dodo bird be de-extinct by the end of 2028?
FutuurExtinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027?
FutuurWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.
- He also estimated a "1 in 10" risk of extinction by unaligned AI within the next century.
Mercati aperti
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 58,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 460,9K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt21%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20276%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 29,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+6.0pt86%
- Yes-6.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 20,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 5,4K €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030+0.1pt71%
- Before 2029+0.1pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 257,2K €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0-8.0pt31%
- Above 1-2.0pt13%
- Above 2-4.0pt6%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+1.0pt51%
- Before 203247%
- Before 203030%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 118,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1K €
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Humans go extinct by 2200??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 82% al 15 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Humans go extinct by 2200??
- Will Humans go extinct by 2200? dovrebbe risolversi il 17 dicembre 2200.
- Come viene liquidato Will Humans go extinct by 2200??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.