Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 79.3%
Previsori
2
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto14 apr 26, 18:13 UTC14 apr 00, 18:08 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.
- This market will resolve YES if there is strong evidence that a majority of people who were cryopreserved before 2026 spent at least 24 hours after legal death but before having their remains vitrified at cryogenic temperatures.
- It will resolve NO if there is strong evidence that a majority were cryopreserved with less than a day's wait time.
- I won't resolve until there is clear, unambiguous evidence about how it should resolve.
- I also won't bet.
Mercati aperti
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 6,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 28,1K €
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volume totale
- 15,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 21,5K €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.5pt93.1%
- Yes+0.5pt6.9%
- Volume totale
- 944,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 8,2K €
KALSHIWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- Kenya14%
- India6%
- Ethiopia-2.0pt5%
+13 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,4K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 600061%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 882,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7K €
KALSHIWill 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?
- On Nov 13, 202696%
- On Mar 13, 202789%
- On Nov 19, 202786%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 16,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3K €
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- Pandemic in 2026?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 79% al 15 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation??
- Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? dovrebbe risolversi il 14 aprile 3000.
- Come viene liquidato Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.