Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 93.9%
Previsori
54
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto14 ago 24, 15:29 UTC15 ago 29, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity go extinct before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Humans go extinct by 2200?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
I have seen predictions that closed source software will be "extinct" within five years (August 14, 2029).
- Will that happen?
- Resolves based on my personal judgment, as to whether closed source software is "extinct" within five years.
- Can resolve early.
- Since this is a subjective question, I will not bet in it.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 63,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 63,6K €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,5 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 27,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 27,4K €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 94% al 15 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)??
- Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)? dovrebbe risolversi il 15 agosto 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I have seen predictions that closed source software will be "extinct" within five years (August 14, 2029).