Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 96%
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81
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto10 lug 23, 20:48 UTC2 gen 30, 04:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Humans go extinct by 2200?
Manifold MarketsMaine lobster landings in 2026
KalshiWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiWill RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?
Manifold MarketsWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
KalshiRegole
If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO.
- For this question, we'll define humans the same as this Metaculus question:
- as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring.
- (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count).
- Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.
Mercati aperti
Society & CultureKALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 70 million pounds65%
- Above 75 million pounds44%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 6,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,2K €
KALSHIWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume totale
- 10,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,6K €
KALSHIWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- Vanderbilt87%
- Rice84%
- UCLA79%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 15,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 431,2 €
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No+0.5pt82.2%
- Yes-0.5pt17.8%
- Volume totale
- 17,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 234,7 €
FORECASTEXWill UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Volume totale
- 189,7 €
- Volume 24h
- 189,7 €
KALSHIUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Significant decrease+3.0pt60.4%
- No significant difference-11.0pt28.7%
- Significant increase+6.2pt10.9%
- Volume totale
- 50,9K €
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Which celebrities will appear in mobile game advertisements this year?
- Hawaii total visitor arrivals in 2026
- Harry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will humanity go extinct before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 96% al 15 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will humanity go extinct before 2030??
- Will humanity go extinct before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will humanity go extinct before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO.