Previsione della comunità attuale
No 81.2%
Previsori
54
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto22 dic 23, 14:22 UTC1 gen 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in August
KalshiRegole
To resolve, I'll take direction from the consensus of the mainstream media...
- If major media outlets are saying unemployment has risen to over 25% (I believe that was roughly how bad things got in the American Great Depression?) and unequivocally state that AI is the primary cause, then we got a winner!
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume totale
- 612,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 81% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ??
- Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: To resolve, I'll take direction from the consensus of the mainstream media...