Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
EconomiaOne-OffIAMacro & Economy8aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 78.5%
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
28 ago 26, 12:26 UTC1 gen 35, 00:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Ben Moll (@ben_moll) on X
- [link preview]Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the "fast-growth" (Explosive AI-driven growth) side of the bet wins.
- It will resolve to NO if the "no-fast-growth" side (which Benjamin Moll is betting on) wins.
- According to the official bet terms, the fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q , up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q-4 (i.e., at least one year before Q).
- Otherwise, the no-fast-growth side wins.
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 79% al 21 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win??
- Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2035.
- Come viene liquidato Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Ben Moll (@ben_moll) on X