Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
InflazioneOne-OffEconomiaIAMacro ed economia8a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 75%
Previsori
22
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto3 feb 25, 09:03 UTC1 gen 35, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US nominal GDP growth in 2034
KalshiWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 1 year?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 10 years?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 7 years?
Manifold MarketsUS Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiRegole
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For example, it rose from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to about $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts now argue that artificial intelligence could drive faster growth, potentially allowing the economy to double every 10 years—much shorter than the usual historical timeline.
- This question focuses on whether AI-driven productivity gains will accelerate U.S. economic expansion enough to double nominal GDP from 2025 to 2035.
- Resolution Criteria
- Data Source: The annual nominal (current-dollar) GDP figures published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
