When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 1 year?
InflazioneOne-OffEconomia14a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 88.4%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 44 minuti fa
3 feb 25, 09:47 UTC1 gen 41, 04:59 UTC
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Asset Sensibili al Macro
Regole
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For instance, it went from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to around $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts argue that the emergence of AGI—or an AI passing the Turing test—could radically boost productivity and compress this timeline, allowing the economy to double in just 1 year.
- This question focuses on whether that transformative AI milestone will, in fact, speed up U.S. nominal GDP growth to such an extent.
- Resolution Criteria
- Event Trigger: A widely recognized, public declaration that an AI system has achieved AGI or passed the Turing test.
