When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 10 years?
InflazioneOne-OffEconomia19a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 13:48 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Obsoleto3 feb 25, 09:17 UTC1 gen 46, 04:59 UTC
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Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For instance, it went from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to around $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts argue that the emergence of AGI—or an AI passing the Turing test—could radically boost productivity and compress this timeline, allowing the economy to double in just 10 years.
- This question focuses on whether that transformative AI milestone will, in fact, speed up U.S. nominal GDP growth to such an extent.
- Resolution Criteria
- Event Trigger: A widely recognized, public declaration that an AI system has achieved AGI or passed the Turing test.
