Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualePandemic 61.1%In testa tra 4 esiti
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto6 lug 23, 21:54 UTC1 gen 50, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
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Manifold MarketsRegole
We hope that these will never strike, but life has shown us time and time again that tragedy is inexorable.
- When one comes, which of these will it be?
- In all cases, >10 million people displaced or 100,000 dead, within a year.
- Must also start counting after this question and either be "new" or 10-fold worse than usual; for example, annual fluctuations (even significant) in the flu must be 10x+ worse than normal range.
- This question's close date is fluid; it may be extended indefinitely until criteria are met.
- This list is exclusive and ignores other disasters that would qualify (e.g. earthquakes, meteors, war, and so forth), but is otherwise as broad and flexible within the listed categories as I can imagine: