Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeGradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze 16.5%In testa tra 13 esiti
Previsori
67
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+0.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto4 apr 26, 17:28 UTC11 apr 80, 17:17 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If a misaligned ASI kills everyone, how will it kill the last 100k people?
Manifold MarketsIn the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?
Manifold MarketsIf, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat are Donald Trumps real goals in relation with Greenland?
Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsRegole
If AI starts to kill everyone with some method and I am still alive and not super shocked, I will resolve the market accordingly.
- It is enough that AI kills the majority of people by the given method A, whereas the minority is killed by some other method, for the market to be resolved in favour of method A. AI mod can resolve it if it wants if all humans are killed.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AI turns humans into robots, this will not count as being 'killed' for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Involuntary mind-uploading of everyone does not count as killing everyone for resolution purposes.
- Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If humans and AI collaborate to kill everyone, AI gets credit for the resolution as long as AI is a significant part of it.
