Quali sono le probabilità attuali per [Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030??

Manifold Markets quota No al 76.4% al 24 ottobre 2026.

[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

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No 76.4%

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Aggiornato 13 ore fa

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7 nov 23, 14:18 UTC1 gen 31, 22:00 UTC

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Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/12813/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves will resolve as Yes there is a single tsunami which can be attributed to 50,000 fatalities.
The tsunami must occur between October 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, but the fatalities need not occur strictly within this time period.
To resolve the question, Metaculus will consider all credible sources, including USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and other official statistics and media reports