Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
PoliticaOne-OffSalute e medicinaMeteoGeopoliticaRussia / UcrainaSportScacchiEuropaIA1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 76.3%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto11 set 23, 16:24 UTC2 gen 28, 06:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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We will evaluate by:
- 1) selecting an article from news
- 2) paste the article into an LLM along with the question: "based on this article, how confident are you that this event has happened from 0-100%? Please answer by filling in this template: {" text of disaster from list above", probability: X%}
- If the average probability across leadingLLMs or the best AI agents at the time, across five tries each, is over 70%, this can resolve true.
- So overall we use the LLM to evaluate the claim based on an article.
- I'm going to try to seek truth as much as possible and not accept a trick or false or unintuitive resolution.
