PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attualeJohn Brennan 28%-0.5%In testa tra 24 esiti
Qualita del mercato
64 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
394,4 €
Liquidità
194,4K €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
3.3% / 3.9%
Spread
18.2%
Spread ampioVariazione 7g
+1.3%
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 minuti fa
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
John Brennan28%
Confronta le piattaforme· John Brennan
Ordinato per qualità del mercato, poi liquidità e volume 24h| Piattaforma | Qualità | Probabilità | vs riferimento | Volume 24h | Liquidità | Aggiornamento | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMigliore in assoluto76% di corrispondenza · verificato | Alta | 36% | +8pt | 1,4K € | 315,3K € | 19 minuti fa | Apri → |
| PolymarketQuesta pagina | Media | 28% | 0pt | 394,4 € | 194,4K € | 19 minuti fa |
Disponibile anche su Kalshi
Who will be arrested in 2026?
0.3%5m
36%
+5.0%26%
23%
+21 altri esiti
91 • Alta qualitàSpread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità
Volume totale907,5K €
Volume 24h1,4K €
KALSHIRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.
Trend del volume
$4492 lug25g di dati26 lug
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.