Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens) 57%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
49
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto18 nov 25, 14:28 UTC1 gen 30, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?
Manifold MarketsIs Russia accelerating the climate crisis?
Manifold MarketsIf AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
Manifold MarketsWhat are Donald Trumps real goals in relation with Greenland?
Manifold MarketsWill Australia enter into any similar agreement to the Falepili Union with another Pacific Island country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any other country enter into a similar agreement to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegole
I'll search for current information on these potential end-times signals to provide accurate context for traders.#### Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if any of the following occurs by the end of 2029:
- Climate Displacement: An estimated 30 million people are displaced annually due to climate-related disasters, but the 500 million threshold requires verification through EITHER UN UNHCR reports or World Bank climate migration assessments.
- Resolution via UNHCR Displacement Data or World Bank Climate Migration Reports.
- US Default: The Bipartisan Policy Center projected the "X-date" will "most likely occur between August 15 and October 3" if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.
- Resolution via US Treasury Department official announcement of default or missed payment.
