Us market crash in 2026?
FedOne-OffEconomiaMacro & EconomyEquitiesUS PoliticsBusiness & CorporateTrade Policy3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 91%
Previsori
32
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
10 gen 26, 06:42 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next big economic crash occur?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?
Manifold MarketsJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
KalshiJobs numbers in Nov 2026?
KalshiJobs numbers in October 2026?
KalshiRegole
Resolution Criteria
- A market crash is generally defined as a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 index.
- This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or below 5,476 points at any time during 2026 (a 20% decline from the 6,845.5 closing level at the end of 2025).
- Resolution will be verified using the S&P 500 historical data from FRED or MarketWatch S&P 500 tracker.
- The S&P 500 rose 16.39% in 2025, extending a strong bull market.
- The CAPE ratio has been hovering in the 39-40 range recently and closed 2025 slightly above 40, which is only the second time in the history of the market that this valuation gauge has surpassed 40.
Mercati aperti
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.1%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 34,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6 Mln €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 altri esiti
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.5%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 543,8K €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 altri esiti
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.9pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.6pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts1%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 7,6 Mln €
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Us market crash in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 91% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Us market crash in 2026??
- Us market crash in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Us market crash in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution Criteria