Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
InflazioneOne-OffAzioniPoliticaPolitica USAElezioneElezioni di metà mandato USA 20267g
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 87.8%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto8 mag 26, 15:47 UTC3 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve "Yes" if the S&P 500 index closes at least 20% lower than its value on the day of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections within 30 calendar days following the election date.
- If the S&P 500 does not decline by at least 20% within this 30-day window, the market will resolve "No."
- The closing price of the S&P 500 on the day of the election and the subsequent daily closing prices will be verified using official data from S&P Dow Jones Indices or a reliable financial reporting source such as Bloomberg or Yahoo Finance.
- A "crash" is defined here as a sudden, rapid, double-digit decline in the index value, specifically reaching or exceeding a 20% drop from the election-day closing price at any point within the specified timeframe.
- A stock market crash is generally characterized by a sudden, dramatic, and widespread decline in stock prices, often driven by panic selling and significant loss of market value.