Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 55.3%
Previsori
65
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto18 ott 23, 16:53 UTC20 ott 32, 03:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?
Manifold MarketsWill we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?
Manifold MarketsWill we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade
Manifold MarketsWill LPL Financial Holdings Inc (LPLA) be added to the S&P 500 by the end of 2026?
ForecastExWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRegole
As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'
- "I do think we will in the future have a financial crisis . . .[and] in the after action reports people will say 'Aha! There was either one data aggregator or one model . . . we've relied on.' Maybe it's in the mortgage market.
- Maybe it's in some sector of the equity market," he said.
- I figured it would be fun to see how likely we actually think it is.
- Note that the 'models go haywire' scenario is not required, only that AI be to blame in some way.
- This resolves to YES if there is a period of one month during which the stock market (S&P 500) declines in nominal terms by 20% or more between market closes AND that decline is generally attributed to AI (e.g. Wikipedia says this, or whatever passes for consensus authority by 2032, I will use best judgment).
Mercati aperti
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7K €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 96,6K €
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 55% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)?
- Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) dovrebbe risolversi il 20 ottobre 2032.
- Come viene liquidato Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'