Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 85%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto21 dic 25, 03:19 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Saudi Arabia and Israel announce the establishment of official diplomatic relations before the end of 2026?
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PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRegole
[image]https://x.com/colin_fraser/status/2002562599846883694
- Resolves according to statements from Colin, or if he makes none or seems to have succumbed to LLM psychosis himself, my own judgement.
- Broadly interpreted, so e.g. any AI chatbot will count, doesn't have to be ChatGPT.
- There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-8.0pt24%
- October 31-5.5pt17%
- September 30-4.5pt8%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 11,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 355,4K €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No84.2%
- Yes15.8%
- Volume totale
- 56,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 292,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+2.6pt66%
- October 31+4.5pt41%
- September 30+5.0pt24%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)79%
- New People (NL)-0.1pt17%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)3%
+5 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- October 31+15.0pt63%
- September 30+19.0pt49%
- September 21+21.5pt42%
+6 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+7.0pt92%
- September 18+10.5pt91%
- September 4+11.0pt87%
+2 altri esiti
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 85% al 12 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027??
- LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: [image]https://x.com/colin_fraser/status/2002562599846883694