Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 99%
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo21 ott 23, 02:17 UTC2 gen 00, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Is the Jacobian conjecture true in two dimensions?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsIs the first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture true?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobian_conjecture
- Resolves once a proof is well-accepted among the mathematical community.
- If it's proven to be unprovable or not well-defined, resolves N/A.
Mercati aperti
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 59,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 176,8K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-1.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 29,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 271K €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 24,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 3,9K €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.6pt73%
- No27%
- Volume totale
- 302,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 2,8K €
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Is the Jacobian conjecture true??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 99% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Is the Jacobian conjecture true??
- Is the Jacobian conjecture true? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2100.
- Come viene liquidato Is the Jacobian conjecture true??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobian_conjecture