When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada?
FedOne-OffPolitica commercialePoliticaPolitica USA2m
KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiNessuna attività di trading
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 09:30 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Punto medio del book selezionato
Before Jan 1, 2027 · —
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Prezzo registratoBefore Jan 1, 2027 50%In testa tra 3 esiti
Qualità del mercato
24 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Open interest
0 USD
Open interest sconosciutoBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2027Spread
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
1 ott 26, 19:15 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Il grafico e le variazioni mostrano probabilità storiche salvate, non il book selezionato in tempo reale.
Trend
Riga selezionata: punto medio del book. Altre righe: riferimenti salvati, eventualmente normalizzati; le variazioni a 24h usano lo storico salvato.
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Profondità di mercato · Before Jan 1, 2027
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Trump tariff Canada 100%
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KalshiTrump announces Canada tariff increase by which date?
PolymarketTrump announces Canada tariff decrease by which date?
PolymarketTariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
PolymarketWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
KalshiRegole
If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only reporting from the White House or the Federal Register qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The market resolves on signing or publication of the qualifying instrument, not on its effective date. Counts as Yes: A flat rate cut on all or any defined subset of covered Canadian aluminum articles, including reinstatement of the August 2026 framework at 25% A tariff-rate quota under which in-quota Canadian aluminum enters below 50% A country exemption or North American metals arrangement that lowers or removes the duty on Canadian aluminum Does NOT count: The July 20, 2026 primary-aluminum onshoring incentive (approved firms importing at half the rate) or any expansion of it Commerce's investment-commitment program allowing individual Canadian or Mexican producers to apply for a 25% rate Individual importer exclusions under the Commerce exclusion process Changes to derivative aluminum products only, with the base article rate unchanged Changes to US-content deductions or smelt-and-cast rules that leave the headline rate at 50% Court rulings enjoining or vacating the tariff Framework agreements, announcements, or press statements without a signed legal instrument
Regole per ogni esito
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
