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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

One-OffTrade PolicyPoliticaUS Politics6m
KalshiKalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Before 2027
Before 2027 10%
In testa tra 5 esiti
Qualita del mercato

44 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

47,3 €

Liquidità

8,4K €

Liquidità media
Bid / Ask

10.0% / 11.0%

Spread

10.0%

Spread ampio
Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 5 minuti fa

11 dic 25, 22:001 gen 27, 4:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità
Before May
Before May
0%
Before June
Before June
0%

Esito scelto

Before 202710%

Regole

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Asset Sensibili al Macro

BitcoinBTC$62,613.02+2.07%EthereumETH$1,648.07+1.25%SolanaSOL$64.97+1.33%

Mercati Correlati

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

891,5 €
Sì: 1%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

177,9 €
Sì: 4%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

5,9 €
$0 / No Acquisition: 81%KalshiKALSHI
Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

0,4 €
Sì: 20%KalshiKALSHI
Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

0,2 €
Before Jul 1, 2026: 9%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

0 €
~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026: 15%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

DogecoinDOGE$0.0848+1.52%XRPXRP$1.11+0.27%BNBBNB$594.47+1.52%CardanoADA$0.1657+3.31%HyperliquidHYPE$55.59+0.31%AvalancheAVAX$6.57+0.82%

Notizie Correlate

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Regole

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.