KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Before 2027 5%+1.3pt
Qualità del mercato
74 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
523,4 €
Liquidità
961,7K €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
4.0% / 5.4%
Spread
1.4 pt
Spread strettoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
11 dic 25, 22:00 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
0%
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
KalshiWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
KalshiTariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
PolymarketWill the feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) of small of small photovoltaics be repealed in Germany in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Wall Street JournalCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCThe GuardianSouth China Morning PostCBCABCBBCThe Washington PostThe VergeABC News Australia
- Clarification (12/18/25): For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
- A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
- The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
- For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
- If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mercati aperti
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+8.0pt55.2%
- October 31+7.0pt32%
- September 30+2.0pt12.8%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 113,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 9,4K €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt28%
- October 31+0.5pt13%
- September 30-0.5pt6%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes+18.0pt93%
- No7%
- Volume totale
- 6,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 4,3K €
KALSHIWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Trump (3+ times)91%
- Republican80%
- Inflation59%
+15 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1K €
KALSHIHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- $0 / No Acquisition+1.0pt83.3%
- $10 billion to $99 billion4.9%
- $300 billion to $599 billion3.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,4 Mln €
POLYMARKETTrump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- October 31+2.0pt56%
- September 30-14.0pt9%
- September 15-0.1pt1%
+1 altri esiti
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026?
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks??
- Kalshi quota Before 2027 al 5% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks??
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.