Religione

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

0.1 pt (24h)2m

Sì1%-0.1pt

No99%+0.1pt

Alta qualità (87)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale66,7 Mln USD

Volume 24h9,1K USD

POLYMARKET

What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

2m

Argentina96%

Peru-2.0pt92%

Uruguay90%

+9 altri esiti

Qualità media (53)Spread moderatoOpen interest altoVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale230K USD

Volume 24h104 USD

KALSHI

Who will the next Pope be?

Luis Antonio Tagle15%

Pietro Parolin6%

Pierbattista Pizzaballa5%

+4 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (≤49)Spread strettoOpen interest alto

Volume totale146,2K USD

Volume 24h—

KALSHI

Sydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026?

0.5 pt (24h)2m

Sì5%+0.5pt

No95%-0.5pt

Qualità media (65)Spread strettoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale24,6K USD

Volume 24h60,8 USD

POLYMARKET

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?

Before Jan 1, 2027

2m

Sì4%

No96%

Bassa qualità (≤49)Spread moderatoOpen interest medioVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale22K USD

Volume 24h—

KALSHI

Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?

2m

Sì10%

No90%

Bassa qualità (33)Spread sconosciutoBassa liquiditàMercato poco profondo

Volume totale106,7 USD

Volume 24h—

FUTUUR

Vatican III in 2026?

2m

Sì14%

No86%

Bassa qualità (32)Spread ampioBassa liquiditàMercato poco profondo

Volume totale17,5 USD

Volume 24h—

POLYMARKET

Pope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?

2m

Sì4%

No96%

Bassa qualità (31)Spread sconosciutoBassa liquiditàMercato poco profondo

Volume totale0,1 USD

Volume 24h—

FUTUUR

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

2a

Sì72.3%

No27.7%

Previsione della comunità263 previsoriTipo: binary

16 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Maitreya" before 2030?

3a

Sì42%

No58%

Previsione della comunità4 previsoriTipo: binary

1 ora fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?

17g

Sì3.6%

No96.4%

Previsione della comunità49 previsoriTipo: binary

1 ora fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI Cult exists by 2027

6m

Sì75.9%

No24.1%

Previsione della comunità182 previsoriTipo: binary

11 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

2m

Sì12.5%

No87.5%

Previsione della comunità51 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the next pope visit the United States by the end of 2026?

2m

Sì7.8%

No92.2%

Previsione della comunità28 previsoriTipo: binary

47 minuti fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

2a

Sì2.2%

No97.8%

Previsione della comunità192 previsoriTipo: binary

3 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

3a

Chicago, IL8.3%

New Orleans, LA8.3%

St. Louis, MO8.3%

+9 altri esiti

Previsione della comunitàTipo: multiple choice

7 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which religions will have gained in total self-identified practicing members from 2026 to 2057?

Buddhist50%

Hindu50%

Jain50%

+1 altri esiti

Previsione della comunitàTipo: multiple choice

6 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

1a

Sì46.6%

No53.4%

Previsione della comunità21 previsoriTipo: binary

10 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the next ecumenical council of the Roman Catholic Church be held?

2025-203010%

2031-204010%

2041-205010%

+7 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità1 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

12 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If Hildebrand, the antipope elected by Bugnolo, is consecrated, which episcopal lineage will the consecrator have?

2m

Old Catholic17.5%

ICAB14.5%

Liberal Catholic14.5%

+4 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità2 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

4 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Wanneer gaat Timon zich bekeren?

9a

202821.9%

202915.1%

20279.7%

+7 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità2 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

4 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When is a millennial (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

2040s33.7%

2030s11.5%

2020s1%

+1 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità2 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

3 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When is a zoomer (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

2040s13.9%

2030s5.4%

2020s2%

+1 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità2 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

10 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which biblical prophecy will be most frequently cited as being fulfilled by world events before January 1, 2027?

2m

Increase in Wars and Rumors of Wars (Matthew 24:6-7)11.9%

Preparation for the Third Temple (Daniel 9:27, Matthew 24:15)8.4%

Rise of the Antichrist (2 Thessalonians 2:3-4)6%

+14 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità3 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

8 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Come Judgment Day, will Jose Luis Ricon enter hell due to being heathen?

Sì50%

No50%

Previsione della comunitàTipo: binary

1 ora fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will god is real?

2m

Sì50%

No50%

Previsione della comunitàTipo: binary

14 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

2a

Sì50%

No50%

Previsione della comunitàTipo: binary

57 minuti fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Domenic Denicola attend a Mormon Transhumanism Association (MTA) conference by EOY2030?

4a

Sì50%

No50%

Previsione della comunitàTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

1a

Sì14.2%

No85.8%

Previsione della comunità1 previsoriTipo: binary

9 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Andres Gomez Emilson or Joscha Bach watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on 5-MEO-DMT by EOY2045

19a

Sì45.2%

No54.8%

Previsione della comunità1 previsoriTipo: binary

7 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be the papal name of Leo XIV's successor?

Alexander20.3%

Leo8.9%

Francis4.4%

+9 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità8 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

16 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which religion will I identify with at the end of the year?

2m

conventional Protestantism23.6%

Catholicism/Eastern Orthodoxy/Oriental Orthodoxy20.1%

Buddhism8.7%

+6 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità5 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

1 ora fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

2m

Sì90.6%

No9.4%

Previsione della comunità25 previsoriTipo: binary

57 minuti fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Barton Rhodes or Alex Zhu watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on psychedelics by EOY2045

19a

Sì43.1%

No56.9%

Previsione della comunità1 previsoriTipo: binary

57 minuti fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Lillian Tara have her own personal army/cult by EOY 2032?

6a

Sì50%

No50%

Previsione della comunità1 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Vincent Weisser be canonized as a saint? (St. Weisser)

Sì20%

No80%

Previsione della comunità1 previsoriTipo: binary

57 minuti fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will basedbeffjezos end up crucified? (nailed to the cross)

Sì40.5%

No59.5%

Previsione della comunità2 previsoriTipo: binary

11 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?

3a

Sì48.2%

No51.8%

Previsione della comunità2 previsoriTipo: binary

57 minuti fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the LDS (Mormon) Church publicly report membership numbers through 2030?

4a

Sì90.1%

No9.9%

Previsione della comunità2 previsoriTipo: binary

16 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @repligate/janus have an arranged marriage?

Sì47.9%

No52.1%

Previsione della comunità3 previsoriTipo: binary

57 minuti fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Ted Cruz meet Sadhguru?

Sì45.3%

No54.7%

Previsione della comunità3 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the "core" Jewish population of the UK be greater than that of Canada by 2030?

3a

Sì31.6%

No68.4%

Previsione della comunità3 previsoriTipo: binary

8 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Why Latter-day Saints Have Strong Communities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

3m

Sì13.5%

No86.5%

Previsione della comunità3 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jose Luis Ricon be beatified?

Sì5.8%

No94.2%

Previsione della comunità3 previsoriTipo: binary

16 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Hindu population of the UK be more than 4 times the Jewish population of the UK by 2030?

3a

Sì70%

No30%

Previsione della comunità4 previsoriTipo: binary

5 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

3m

Sì17.7%

No82.3%

Previsione della comunità4 previsoriTipo: binary

11 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Catholic Church canonize Jose Luis Ricon as a saint by 2100?

Sì5.6%

No94.4%

Previsione della comunità4 previsoriTipo: binary

9 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Are ancient afterlife myths interpretations of near death experiences?

Sì61.3%

No38.7%

Previsione della comunità5 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

Who will the next Pope be?

Sydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026?

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?

Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?

Vatican III in 2026?

Pope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Maitreya" before 2030?

Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?

AI Cult exists by 2027

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Will the next pope visit the United States by the end of 2026?

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Which religions will have gained in total self-identified practicing members from 2026 to 2057?

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

When will the next ecumenical council of the Roman Catholic Church be held?

If Hildebrand, the antipope elected by Bugnolo, is consecrated, which episcopal lineage will the consecrator have?

Wanneer gaat Timon zich bekeren?

When is a millennial (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

When is a zoomer (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

Which biblical prophecy will be most frequently cited as being fulfilled by world events before January 1, 2027?

Come Judgment Day, will Jose Luis Ricon enter hell due to being heathen?

Will god is real?

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

Will Domenic Denicola attend a Mormon Transhumanism Association (MTA) conference by EOY2030?

Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will Andres Gomez Emilson or Joscha Bach watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on 5-MEO-DMT by EOY2045

What will be the papal name of Leo XIV's successor?

Which religion will I identify with at the end of the year?

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

Will Barton Rhodes or Alex Zhu watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on psychedelics by EOY2045

Will Lillian Tara have her own personal army/cult by EOY 2032?

Will Vincent Weisser be canonized as a saint? (St. Weisser)

Will basedbeffjezos end up crucified? (nailed to the cross)

Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?

Will the LDS (Mormon) Church publicly report membership numbers through 2030?

Will @repligate/janus have an arranged marriage?

Will Ted Cruz meet Sadhguru?

Will the "core" Jewish population of the UK be greater than that of Canada by 2030?

Will "Why Latter-day Saints Have Strong Communities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Jose Luis Ricon be beatified?

Will the Hindu population of the UK be more than 4 times the Jewish population of the UK by 2030?

Will "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will the Catholic Church canonize Jose Luis Ricon as a saint by 2100?

Are ancient afterlife myths interpretations of near death experiences?

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