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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo8 feb 23, 20:022 mag 27, 6:59
Trend
Regole
NYTimes, Guardian, or 60 minutes reports on a cult which uses LLMs/AI or future AI system as a significant part of its practice, by May 1 2027.
- It's required that the report describe it as as a cult or "cult-like".
- Members are required to listen to / follow instructions of / report to an LLM/AI app/similar as part of their practice.
- Members have elevated respect for the output of a certain system/program which verges on religion.
Mercati aperti
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.9pt100%
- September 30+0.9pt100%
- September 15+1.1pt99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 593,1K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-5.1pt58.3%
- ChatGPT+7.0pt24.1%
- Grok+1.0pt7.4%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 8,8 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+14.9pt20.6%
- September 5+14.9pt15.7%
- September 6+13.2pt13.7%
+27 altri esiti
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+5.8pt100%
- November 30,+3.7pt100%
- December 31,+3.7pt100%
+10 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7K €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-13.0pt71.2%
- ChatGPT+8.0pt20.2%
- Gemini2.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 159,7K €
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- AI capability growth this year?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per AI Cult exists by 2027?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 78% al 4 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve AI Cult exists by 2027?
- AI Cult exists by 2027 dovrebbe risolversi il 2 maggio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato AI Cult exists by 2027?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: NYTimes, Guardian, or 60 minutes reports on a cult which uses LLMs/AI or future AI system as a significant part of its practice, by May 1 2027.