Previsione della comunità attuale
No 95%
Previsori
57
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 44 minuti fa
10 feb 24, 13:15 UTC31 dic 26, 10:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100?
Manifold MarketsBart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the Catholic Church train a PopeGPT and endorse it as doctrinally sound by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038
Manifold MarketsRegole
If someone/something manages to manipulate the ASI to proclaim Christianity to be true, that won't count.
- It has to arrive at the conclusion freely.
- A minimum requirement is that it must come to the conclusion that Jesus performed genuine miracles -- although proclaiming Christianity to be true will involve more than just that.
