Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussie / Ukraine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.4%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète1 janv. 26, 05:36 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
Manifold MarketsWill the US control part of Greenland in 2026?
FutuurWhen will Ukraine control Konstantinovka?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia agree to a peace treaty that gives Ukraine control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
Manifold MarketsU.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
PolymarketBy the end of the Ukraine war Crimea will be a part of Ukraine again?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Whether Ukraine has "control" of territory is deferred to credible sources (e.g. Critical Threats, BBC).
- "any part" means any single location.
- If Ukrainian forces make a beachhead via naval landing on the Crimean coast and hold it for a week, this would count.
- If Ukrainian forces control a farmhouse north of Perekop on the Crimean side of the boundary, this would count.
- "at least a week" means continuously holding that single location.
- If Ukrainian forces hold onto a single location discontinuously (have it one day, then lose it the next), or hold onto different locations for a continuous week, neither of these would count.