Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.8%
Prévisionnistes
34
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 52 minutes
En retard2 nov. 23, 15:37 UTC7 nov. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)
Manifold MarketsWill any Manifold user be imprisoned in CECOT or a similar prison after deportation from the US during Trump's 2nd term?
Manifold MarketsWho will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES when he is in prison following a conviction.
- Resolves NO if and when his current trails end without a prison sentence.
