Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)
One-OffPolitique américaineCriminalité et justiceSociété et culture2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 94.3%
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21
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
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Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète5 févr. 25, 16:52 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This question was motivated by (but isn't exclusively about) passports.
- On his first day back in office, Donald Trump signed an executive order telling federal agencies, including the State Department, not to recognize identities other than male or female, including when issuing passports.
- If, in 2026, there is a two week period where at least a dozen transgender citizens CANNOT(!) acquire/renew passports, this resolves NO.
- If a motivated trans person (who is willing to check whatever box will get them out of the country on a government form) can basically always get a passport and use it to leave the country, this resolves YES.
- If being transgender starts to be criminalized such that at least a dozen people are imprisoned (for at least two weeks) because of their gender identity, for taking hormones, or for other medical care, this resolves NO.
- If they deliberately get arrested, that doesn't count.
