Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.4%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète5 sept. 25, 21:57 UTC20 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump ban or significantly limit Prozac?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump ban Bombardier from selling in the US by the end of this year?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if the Trump or Vance bans transgender people from buying guns before 2029.
- This could happen by signing a bill, or an ATF directive.
- Ban must target trans or lgbt people.
- A ban on everyone purchasing guns would not qualify.
- A ban that is preemptively struck down by the courts would resolve NO.
- If trans people can still buy guns by dressing differently resolves NO.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
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- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
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- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Trump ban gun sales to transgender people? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Trump ban gun sales to transgender people? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Trump ban gun sales to transgender people? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will Trump ban gun sales to transgender people? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if the Trump or Vance bans transgender people from buying guns before 2029.