Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
US PoliticsOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.4%
Prévisionnistes
41
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète16 févr. 25, 17:10 UTC21 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump ban gun sales to transgender people?
Manifold MarketsPeak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
KalshiWhat will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
KalshiWill DeSantis have a role in Trump’s administration?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?
Manifold MarketsWho will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Background: some people have claimed that the Trump administration plans to refuse passports to trans people.
- The State Department has said they will « only issue passports with an M or F sex marker that match the customer's biological sex at birth. » Some trans people report delays of less than a month in passport processing.
- This question will resolve YES if credible reports emerge of at least 5 people being denied US passports because they are trans.
- The question will NOT resolve yes if:
- 1) Trans people are denied passports for reasons unrelated to being trans
- 2) Delays in passport processing occur
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration? doit être résolu le 21 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Background: some people have claimed that the Trump administration plans to refuse passports to trans people.