Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029?
One-OffPolitique américaineSociété et cultureSanté et médecine2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 21:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 60.1%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète16 nov. 25, 01:43 UTC31 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
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PolymarketRègles
Basically the same as my previous market.
- Same resolution criteria, minus the timeline.
- De facto situation or any legal action trigger resolution.
- Phrasing of end of timeline is weird to maximize handling of edge cases.
- Update 2026-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The soft revocation scenario (where passports are notionally valid but unusable for re-entry) was an oversight in the original resolution criteria.
- The creator intends to resolve based on what events actually happen rather than specific wording, but acknowledges that the literal text of the market description takes precedence over intent.
