Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.2%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète31 mars 26, 14:50 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Joe Biden die before the 2028 presidential election (Nov. 7 2028)?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden die before Donald Trump?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Joe Biden die?
Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiWill a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law?
KalshiHeidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Joe Biden dies at any point during 2026 (January 1 - December 31, 2026).
- Resolution will be determined by major news sources reporting his death.
- This market resolves NO if Biden survives through December 31, 2026.
- As of January 4, 2026, Joe Biden is 83 years old, having been born on November 20, 1942.
- Biden left the Oval Office on January 20, 2025.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsKALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+82.9pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-82.9pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.1pt0%
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+3.5pt45.5%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-2.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Joe Biden die this year? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Joe Biden die this year? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Joe Biden die this year? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Joe Biden die this year? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria