Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète1 mai 25, 20:47 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US be at full employment in December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed -182,000 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
Manifold MarketsWill Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work?
Manifold MarketsWisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
KalshiWill the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed 170,000 in September 2026?
ForecastExRègles
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a federal law or regulation in effect in 2026 that mandates employment or work-related activities as a condition for Medicaid eligibility for able-bodied adults without dependents.
- The market will resolve to "No" if no such federal requirement is in effect by that date.
- Medicaid is a joint federal and state program providing health coverage to low-income individuals.
- Historically, eligibility has been based primarily on income, without federal work requirements.
- However, there have been periodic efforts to introduce work requirements:
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,4 k €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Volume total
- 314,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5 k €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Medicaid requires employment (work requirement) in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Medicaid requires employment (work requirement) in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Medicaid requires employment (work requirement) in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Medicaid requires employment (work requirement) in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria: