Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2027-2029 60.6%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
412
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-1.7 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète15 oct. 23, 12:32 UTC11 nov. 30, 22:00 UTC
Tendances
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Joe Biden die before Donald Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden die this year?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
Joe Biden was born in 1942, making him the oldest president to ever take office.
- If he is elected to a second term, he would start it at 82.
- There have been a number of rumors and specualtions about his health, with many conservative pundits claiming he is suffering from dementia.
- On the other hand, routine medical check-ups describe him as "vigorous":
- https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-united-states-government-health-bdce6c15df6186e06710f2d903a3513e
- [link preview]
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 592,5 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.6pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt99%
- $25M+3.5pt96%
- $50M+4.5pt91%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 220,4 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 214,6 k €
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will Joe Biden die? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2027-2029 à 61% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will Joe Biden die? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will Joe Biden die? doit être résolu le 11 novembre 2030.
- Comment When will Joe Biden die? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Joe Biden was born in 1942, making him the oldest president to ever take office.